Arkansas (- 4.5) @ Mississippi
Both of these teams come off of tough losses on their home fields last week. The Razorbacks dropped a 2-point decision to Auburn, while Ole Miss might have been screwed by a replay official in its loss to Alabama. From the looks of the local newspapers, the Rebels haven't gotten over it. One thing is for sure -- one of these teams won't be winless in the SEC after it is over. Razorback RBs Darren "Run-DMC" McFadden and Felix Jones should enjoy the Rebs rush defense this week -- 98th in the land (194 yards allowed per game). Arkansas averages 293 per game rushing, and by our estimate, that means the Hogs should outgain the Rebels by 100+ yards on the ground, which makes them a solid play with a spread under 7 points.
Wyoming @ Air Force (-2.5)
Two years ago, Wyoming and Air Force met in September and the Cowboys boasted a rush defense ranked 32nd. Last year the met in September again, and Wyoming's rush D was ranked 16th. In those meetings, Air Force ran for 286 and 327 yards. This week the Cowboys come into a mid-October game with their rush defense ranked 16th. Expect history to repeat itself, as Wyoming got shocked last week by New Mexico and must now take to the road to face a surging Air Force team that has won two straight and has a window of opportunity to get back into the Mountain West race. The Coyboys have not allowed a 100-yard rusher this year, but then they haven't seen a running attack like the one the Falcons have. The Falcons have a 2.1 yard advantage in yards per attempt as well, and the Cowboys have uncertainty about their starting quarterback's health.
Kansas @ Colorado (+4)
The long and short of it -- we aren't believers in the Jayhawks. Their win two weeks back of rival Kansas St. and their 48-point victory over Baylor last week, notwithstanding, Kansas has a schedule strength of 126. That means there are seven Division 1-AA (FCS) schools that have played tougher competition. Despite its lopsided loss last week at Kansas St., Colorado can get right back in the Big 12 North hunt if it can take down its current leader in this one. Kansas head man Mark Mangino is 5-21 on the road (12-14 against the number) and he has only been a road favorite twice in that time with both of those instances occurring against middling Iowa St. (Kansas covered one of them). If Colorado can best Oklahoma in Boulder, it can certainly defeat the Jayhawks.
Oklahoma (-30) @ Iowa St.
Last week it was Texas hanging a 56-3 whipping on lowly Iowa St. This week, Oklahoma rolls in. Thanks to what has been a weekly shuffle of the Top 10, the Sooners are in position now for a BCS title game run and are likely intent on impressing all the voters they can. Oklahoma has a point spread differential thus far in the season of 51, while the Cyclones possess a minus-31. The Sooners should hit all of their offensive averages in this game, which translates to 460 yards gained, and 48 points scored. Subtracting the spread, that means the Cyclones would have to put up 18 here to cover -- not likely. Iowa St.'s propensity for turnovers and its lack of scoring ability make it ripe for another shellacking.
USC (-17) @ Notre Dame
Yes, Notre Dame surprised with a win last week at UCLA. But that was UCLA -- probably the most enigmatic team in college football this side of Washington. We aren't ready to drink the Kelly green Kool-Aid just yet. The Irish still have big problems -- 119th in rush offense, 111th in pass offense, 115th in efficiency, 117th on 3rd down, 118th in scoring offense, 119th in sacks allowed, 93rd against the run, and 93rd in 3rd down defense. Whew...USC should be able to run the ball at will in this game and a Trojan defense ranked fifth against the run and 32nd against the pass doesn't figure to give up many points. Just by averages, USC figures to outgain 170 yards, which makes them a solid bet up to a line of 21. And if that isn't enough, what are the odds that Notre Dame will cover four straight and that USC will lose four straight against the spread?
Virginia @ Maryland (-3.5)
Virginia has been living right all season. They have won three games by five points or less, including a one-point home win against Connecticut last week that resulted in large part from a Husky bad snap that prevented a game-winning field goal try. Maryland, despite a rash of injuries, has worked its way into the ACC picture. The Terrapins upset Georgia Tech two weeks ago and come into this game off of a bye. Angles that may mean nothing: Maryland head man Ralph Friedgen is 8-5 against the number coming off a bye, while Cavs coach Al Groh is 0-6 against the spread as a road underdog of less than seven. Also, Groh is 1-6 ATS when facing teams that complete better than 62 percent of their passes -- the Terps are completing 66.7%.
Houston (-12.5) @ UAB
UAB is another team which has been over-performing. The Blazers have somehow managed to cover the number four games in a row, despite the fact that they allow 224 yards a game on the ground, bad enough for 113th in the land. Houston rolls in off of a wild, weird shootout win over Rice. The Cougars average 204 yards rushing per game in addition to 310 through the air. Houston has significant advantages in every category except turnovers and after going minus-6 in turnover differential the last three games, the Cougars are due to get some extra possessions. We expect the Blazers to go down in flames...
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