Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup Stakes

1 1/8 Miles on Turf for Fillies, Three Years Old

The ninth race on Keeneland’s Oct. 13 Card

Continuing a streak of competitive stakes races at this Fall’s Keeneland meet, today’s QE II boasts a field of nine, none of whom have longer morning line odds than 12-1. Dreaming of Anna, last year’s two-year old filly champion, has the early favored status. She enters off of three straight wins, but none of those fields quite matched this one. She may be vulnerable, especially when one considers that four of the challengers here exit the Grade 1 Garden City at Belmont -- a race that saw the top eight horses at the finish separated by a mere three lengths.

Top Selection: Sharp Susan (#9):

Sharp Susan, winner of the grade II Lake Placid two races back, comes out of the Garden City, where she was third, beaten ¾ of a length. Bit of Whimsy, also in this race, finished just ahead of her, but Bit of Whimsy ran to her average speed number of 86, while Sharp Susan ran nine points lower than her three-race average of 95. Should Sharp Susan move back to a mid-nineties number she takes this race. She’s second or better in six of our 12 categories, including first in class plus speed and best late speed. Represents extraordinary value at 8-1. Trainer Bill Mott and jockey Kent Desormeaux have won 26 percent of 82 starts where they have teamed -- the highest return in this field.

Also Like: Good Mood (#2), Costume (#8):

Good Mood has not raced in two months but comes off the sharpest workout in this field -- breezing five furlongs in 1:00 2/5 five days ago. She has the highest three-race average speed figure here, and that with a sub-par number her last race -- the 1 and 1/16 mile Lake George at Saratoga, a distance that might not suit her closing style. The extra distance here will help, as she won the Regret Stakes at 1 1/8 back in June.

Costume was transferred to Bobby Frankel’s barn off her fourth-place effort in the Garden City -- her first race in the states after six races in Europe and one in which she was beaten by only ¾ of a length. Frankel’s interest alone gets ours.

Fear: Coquerelle (#6):

A French invader that hasn't run in four months and bled after a DNF in the French Oaks. Still, she won all four of her starts prior to the French Oaks and she leads this field in class by dollars -- averaging double the earnings of Street Sounds (#3), the second-place horse in that category. Further, her regular jockey is flying over to take the mount -- a sign that she has legitimate prospects for victory.

Bets:

$10 to Win, $30 to Place, $60 to Show on #9 (odds must be better than 4-1) ($100)

$10 Exacta 9 with 2,6,7,8 ($40)

$4 Exacta 2,6,8 with 9 ($24)

$2 Trifecta 9 with 2,6,7,8 with 1,2,4,5,8 ($36)