Kent State @ Akron

Despite the appearance that Kent State has a superior rushing attack (averaging 242 yards per game), the Golden Flashes have shown a propensity for losing the ball...they were minus-4 in turnover margin against Kentucky, and minus-2 last week against Delaware St.  Yeah, Delaware St.  Now they take to the road to face an Akron squad that hasn't shown much offense as yet, but that may be due to the fact that the Zips have played back-to-back road games at dominant Ohio St. and improving Indiana.  This figures to be a close contest between two of the best MAC defenses.  Akron is 5-1 as an underdog in home openers while the Flashes were 0-2 as road favorites last season.

Ball St. @ Nebraska

Nebraska took a beating at the hands of USC last week while Ball St. eked out an overtime win over Navy (beating our pick, as well).  Normally, we might fear a hangover here, but the Huskers get another home date and in this one they figure to run amok.  Nebraska has faced much classier competition and now gets to face a rush defense ranked 115th (268 yards allowed per game).  The balanced Husker attack should hang a minimum of 42 as it erases the bad memory of 35 unanswered Trojan points last week. 

Georgia @ Alabama

Thanks to that half-point, we got a narrow win last week as 'Bama defeated Arkansas on a last-second touchdown pass but didn't cover the number.  We still aren't believers in the Tide.  A team that allowed 38 points and 301 yards rushing still has some problems to solve, even if the Tide faniacs are calling for an undefeated season.  Georgia is 1-7 lifetime in Tuscaloosa, but UGA coach Mark Richt is 2-0 against the Tide in two meetings and we have to believe that even if the numbers aren't there statistically yet, the talent is.  And how about this...the Bulldogs are 5-0-1 against the spread the last six times they have been an SEC road underdog.

Penn St. @ Michigan

Michigan can right a lot of wrongs with a win this weekend.  So what if a national title is no longer possible?  So what if they had not one, but two humiliating losses?  So what, because they can still win the Big Ten and get to the Rose Bowl, which has to be the main focus as the conference season opens.  The Wolverines have owned Penn St. since 1996, going 8-0 against them in that span.  And who have the Nitanny Lions played?  Florida International, Notre Dame, and Buffalo -- by the numbers, three of the worst five teams in college football.  And PSU rolls into Ann Arbor as a favorite?  Well, the Lions don't have the athletic offense that an Oregon, or an Appalachian State has, do they?  Aren't they more like the typical Big Ten team...the kind that Michigan might be able to handle?  We think so.  The Wolverines have a significant advantage in schedule strength and they average over 226 yards per game on the ground. (so what if PSU is allowing just 17 yards rushing per game?...check out the three teams they built that stat against).  Add in a home field and an underdog role and Michigan becomes one solid pick.

Michigan State @ Notre Dame

I am sure you have heard it already, but here it is again.  Notre Dame is 111th in rush defense, 119th in rush offense, 115th in pass offense, 113th in pass efficiency, 108th in 3rd down offense, 113th in 3rd down defense, 99th in scoring defense, and 119th in scoring offense.  Everyone in the USA is talking about how bad the Irish are, how unbelievable it is, how they may not win a game, how they aren't even going to have a chance in any of their games from here on out.  What does that mean?  It means it is time to take them!  The Irish, for all their poor numbers, have to have some talent -- they are Notre Dame after all -- and it will be more likely to show this week back in South Bend.  Michigan State is no Georgia Tech.  The Spartans have surprised thus far, going 3-0, but they have shown a propensity in the last few years for fast starts and late collapses.  The Fighting Irish may not win (especially since Michigan State will desperately want to avenge last season's gut-wrenching, blown-lead, one-point loss to the Irish) but we think a home-standing Notre Dame will certainly cover 13 points against anMSU team taking to the road for the first time this year, with a new coach, a new starting quarterback, and only a handful of starters back.

Memphis @ Central Florida

It would be hard to imagine that the atmosphere in the second game ever at Central Florida's new stadium could equal the atmosphere that permeated the first game ever held at the stadium -- a three-point loss to Texas.  But if the new field proved anything, it was that its intimate construction will be a big benefit for the Golden Knights in the future.  Perhaps the future is now, as Memphis comes into town to face a Central Florida team that is gradually finding its offense.  The Knights have faced vastly superior competition in Texas and NC State.  Memphis has played Ole Miss and Jacksonville St. and had some trouble defensively with the latter, allowing nearly 400 yards of offense and 14 points.  UCF has an advantage of 143 spots in Sagarin schedule strength and we think they will build on last week's sterling effort against the Longhorns.  The Tigers will also be without their leading WR and LB -- both injured last game.

Iowa St. @ Toledo

Iowa St. comes off a shocking win over arch-rival Iowa, a game in which the Cyclones were 17-point underdogs.  And next week they travel to face Big 12 North compatriot Nebraska.   What about this week?  Oh, yeah.  The last eight times the Cyclones have won as an underdog, they are 1-7 against the spread the following week.  Further, they are 3-13 against the number in the first game of back-to-back road games.  Toledo is usually tough to handle in the Glass Bowl -- they are 4-0 as home underdogs in the last four seasons.

Kentucky @ Arkansas

Normally, we would be full-on against a team that took a heart-breaking loss like the one Arkansas took last week in Tuscaloosa.  Normally, we would be full-on in favor of a team with positive momentum off an upset win like the one Kentucky had over Louisville last Saturday night.  But this one is not normal.  Arkansas is giving up just 6.5 points to a team that is yielding 185 yards a game on the ground, and that against a schedule rated 106th.  The Razorbacks will run all over the Wildcats, and have a decent enough passing efficiency defense ranking (26th) for us to believe they might hold UK QB Andre Woodson in check.  If this spread were 21, like we thought it would be at the beginning of the season, we would be all over the Wildcats, especially given the above heartbreak scenario...but 6.5?  The Razorbacks can get that done against a UK team that might have reveled too much in last Saturday's win over an arch-rival.

New Mexico St. @ Auburn

New Mexico St. is averaging 398 yards passing a game and is 34th in scoring offense.  Too bad those numbers have come against SE Louisiana, New Mexico, and UTEP.  Now the Aggies will face one of the best defenses in the country in Auburn.  We love this angle:  a team has three straight home games.  In game 1, team suffers a shocking loss.  Fans are unhappy.  In game 2, team has a hangover, and loses again. Fans are furious and booing.   In game 3, team aims to impress disgruntled fan base and puts together a dominant performance.  We don't think New Mexico St. is going to score much, and Auburn, offensive woes aside, won't get too far into the playbook with a trip to Florida up next.  A nice equation for an under.

South Carolina @ LSU

What kind of joke are polls at this point of the season if a team can be ranked 12th and yet be a 17-point underdog?  South Carolina is in just that position, and we are still pondering how the Gamecocks beat Georgia between the hedges.  Can they go on the road and win that kind of game again?  We think not.  In fact, LSU's defense looks positively impenetrable thus far.  The Tigers are 3rd in rush defense, 2nd in pass defense, 1st in pass efficiency defense, total defense, and scoring defense.  Whew....will South Carolina score with a team that could muster only 16 at Georgia, and 28 at home versus Louisiana-Lafayette?  Also figure in a potent LSU offense that managed to score 44 points last week against Middle Tennessee St. without the services of starting QB Matt Flynn or No. 1 WR Early Doucet.  LSU covers the numer and then some.  In fact, we think South Carolina doesn't get to the end zone without the aid of turnovers or drastic changes in field position.

Purdue @ Minnesota

I have to say it hasn't bothered me to see Minnesota get off to a rough start this season.  The Golden Gophers fired Glen Mason after last season's bowl collapse against Texas Tech and that never made much sense to me.  Mason went 64-57 and took Minnesota to seven bowls in ten years, including bowls the last five seasons.  You fire a guy like that, you deserve some karma, and Minnesota has gotten it thus far with losses to Bowling Green and Florida Atlantic.  The Gophers come off three straight overs and have Ohio State next, while Purdue's offense has clicked non-stop thus far this season.  The Boilermakers take to the road for their Big Ten opener, a game they should win.  In fact, we think they will do most of the scoring while the Gophers struggle to hold on to the ball.  They were minus-7 in turnover margin last week.  That kind of ineptitude usually translates into a low point total the following game.  Look for Purdue to take a 48-10-type game, far beneath the under of 71.

Go forth and propser.