What We Thought: The last two times Central Michigan met Purdue, in 1999 and 2000, the Chippewas lost by a combined score of 106-16 and not much figures to change in this Saturday’s contest. Central Michigan is yielding 344 yards through the air in its first two games and neither of its first two opponents even ranks in the top 15 nationally in pass offense. Add to that Purdue QB Curtis Painter is 16th in passing efficiency and it is looking like another long, lopsided day for the Chippewas.
What Happened: Purdue 45, C. Michigan 22 (W)
As we expected, Painter had a fine day. He threw for 360 yards and three touchdowns and the Boilermakers rolled up 586 yards of offense. Purdue made us sweat though. The Boilermakers covered the number despite five turnovers.
What We Thought: Is Temple ever going to be good? I thought the move to the MAC would benefit the school -- it was never going to get competitive in the deceptively rough Big East -- but if Buffalo can come into town as a 3-point dog and leave as a 42-7 victor, the Owls rebuilding progress must be glacial in its pace. Temple is ranked 17th in pass defense. Know why? No one has to throw against them, as they are giving up 292 yards per game rushing. Connecticut averages 41 points per game and will hit that number in this one, while the Owls will struggle to score against a Husky defense ranked 8th by points allowed in the land.
What Happened: Connecticut 22, Temple 17 (L)
We were way off on our assessment of Connecticut's offensive prowess. It was obvious in the game that the Huskies were on cruise control. After jumping to an easy ealry lead they relaxed and it nearly cost them. In fact, UConn benefitted from a questionable call in the last 40 seconds of the game when an apparently caught-on-deflection touchdown pass by Temple receiver Bruce Francis was ruled incomplete, and then upheld on replay review. Too bad for the Owls...
What We Thought: The boos were cascading in the bars in Blacksburg, Va last week as LSU gained 598 yards of offense and blasted Virginia Tech, 48-7, and coach Frank Beamer must have heard them. Sean Glennon is no longer the starting quarterback for the Hokies. In his place will be true freshman Tyrod Taylor -- the first true freshman to start for the school since 1982. The question is can an offense that has sputtered to just two touchdowns do better with an inexperienced athlete at the helm? Short answer, yes. The Hokies are ranked fifth in schedule strength according to the Sagarin ratings, while Ohio ranks just 159th. Anytime we see more than a 100-place advantage we get interested, let alone an advantage of 150. The Hokies blasted Ohio 45-0 in Bobcat coach Frank Solich’s first year and although Ohio is improving, I don’t think they are within three touchdowns of the Hokies. Tech figures to improve greatly on its meager average of 52 yards rushing per game since Ohio is giving up 171 on the ground per game, and that is against the aforementioned weak schedule. If Beamer can pile it on, he will this week and next, against William & Mary. His team needs the confidence boost.
What Happened: Virginia Tech 28, Ohio 7 (W)
We thought it would be more emphatic, but the Hokies got the job done behind Taylor, who was mistake-free, ran for a score, and passed for 287 yards. The Hokies managed 181 yards on the ground. We thought they would be better than that. They did, however, hold the Bobcats to just 38 yards rushing -- a significant improvement for a unit that had been torched by LSU.
What We Thought: Western Michigan takes to the road for the second time this season, and for the second time it will have to deal with a buzz saw offense. The Broncos took it on the chin on a trip to Morgantown, WV and were unable to mount a comeback at home against Indiana last week. Despite the fact that Western Michigan is 16th in passing yards, it is only 69th in efficiency and has been unable to stop turning the ball over, which may prove problematic since Missouri’s defense has been opportunistic so far this season. We figure that the Tigers may get as many as five extra possessions in this game which makes them a good bet to cover the number. Missouri has started fast in each of its first two games behind the passing of QB Chase Daniel (8th in pass yardage, 19th in efficiency) and should cruise to a big lead against a Bronco defense allowing 49.5 points per game.
What Happened: Missouri 52, W. Michigan 24 (W)
Missouri continued its early proficiency, racing out to a 31-3 lead and keeping pace in the second half behind Daniel's 328 yards passing. The Tigers wound up netting only one extra possession via turnover, but the Broncos were just 3-for-16 on third down and were penalized nine times, enabling Missouri's efficient offense to get the job done.
What We Thought: Miami returns home licking wounds incurred against a superior Oklahoma team. The Hurricanes gave up 50+ points for the first time in nine years (Syracuse administered a 66-13 whipping in 1998...wow, remember when Syracuse was good?) and took their worst beating since LSU thumped them 40-3 at the end of the 2005 season. Florida International has virtually no one back -- new players, new coach, no offense (10 points in two games). The Panthers probably won’t score, while the Canes are averaging just a bit better than three touchdowns a game themselves. Miami will deal with the hangover and get the win against inferior competition, but new head coach Randy Shannon won’t put too much at risk with Texas A&M coming to town in just five days. The Under of 48 strikes us generous.
What Happened: Miami 23, Fla. International 9 (W)
We were right on the money with this one. Not much scoring offense from either team. The Canes and Panthers combined to go 6-for-22 on third down and the officials aided the case for the under by flagging the two teams 22 times for 176 yards.
What We Thought: Ah, Notre Dame-Michigan. Who would have figured two weeks ago that this game might be an elimination contest for bowl consideration? How storied are these programs? Consider this is the first time ever that both schools are 0-2. Add to that the fact that Michigan is on its first four-game losing streak since 1959. The game presents us with one of our favorite early-season angles: go against a team in the second of back-to-back road games with an inexperienced quarterback. Notre Dame fits that bill, and it looks even more solid when one notes that the Irish are dead last in rushing offense (-4 yards per game). Even if they are able to take advantage of Michigan’s porous rush defense (109th) they still figure to rush for no more than 120 yards, which is not enough by our calculations to pull out a win, or a cover. Further, Michigan is outperforming Notre Dame in yards per pass attempt by 2.1 yards, a significant advantage for games with lines under 10. The absence of Chad Henne at QB for Michigan notwithstanding, the Wolverines will right their ship first by getting RB Mike Hart 40 touches if necessary and torching Notre Dame's rush defense (100th, allowing 214 per game).
What Happened: Michigan 38, Notre Dame 0 (W)
We called for Hart to get 40 touches. We were just a little off. He only got 37, but it was enough, as he ran for 187 on 35 carries, caught two balls for 14 yards, and delivered the win he guaranteed. How bad is Notre Dame? This was even worse than we thought it would be. We thought the Irish would at least be able to run the ball a little bit -- we predicted they would go for 120...they ran 33 times for -6 yards and allowed 8 sacks. Remember last year when some of the talking heads were telling us what a genius Charlie Weis was, that he could outscheme a lot of teams with superior talent? Umm, no...
What We Thought: Tennessee covered the number against Southern Miss last week, an unusual occurrence for them in the week preceding the Florida game over the last ten years. The Volunteers had been just 2-8 against the spread in that time frame, but after each of those two wins UT came into the Florida contest as a small home favorite and each time they lost, by 2 and 17 points, respectively. This year, the Vols go to Florida and are getting more than a touchdown against a Gator team that has played 1-AA Western Kentucky and Troy, who managed to score 31 points on a UF defense that features only two returning starters from last year’s national championship team. Tennessee is battle-tested with a well-played loss at Cal already under its belt. The Gators are 18-0 in the Swamp and coach Urban Meyer hasn’t lost there yet, but the underdog in this game is 5-1 against the spread in the last six meetings. We think the Vols lose close, if they don’t win this game outright.
What Happened: Florida 59, Tennessee 20 (L)
Tennesee, battle-tested? Did I write that? In a week where home favorites of 10 or less were a pedestrian 5-7 against-the-spread, we chose poorly here. Rather than looking at the historical angles we favored, we should have looked no further than UT's average of 152 yards rushing per game versus Florida's 17th-ranked rush defense, which entered the game yielding just 50 yards per game -- an average they lowered by holding the Vols to just 37 yards on 21 carries.
What We Thought: Navy surprised us last week with a decent effort against Rutgers and we think the Midshipmen will build on that effort rather than regress. The Middies won by 11 against Temple on the road and tied the number against the Scarlett Knights in Jersey. Now they open their home schedule as relatively small favorite against a Ball State team that will have trouble handling the Middies triple-option offense. The Cardinals are mid-pack in rush defense and have not allowed either of their first two opponents to crest 300 yards of offense, but that number represents Navy’s average rushing day. Navy coach Paul Johnson has never lost to a MAC school (5-0 straight up and 4-1 ATS). Ball State is 1-3 ATS in the second of back-to-back road games as an underdog of 10 or less, and the Cardinals are 0-5 ATS on the road coming off a game in which they scored at least 35 (they put up 38 last week).
What Happened: Ball State 34, Navy 31 (L)
Navy rushed for 521 yards on the ground, the third most in school history, and the Middies did so after losing their starting quarterback at halftime. Unfortunately for us, Ball State gained 539 yards themselves and extended drives all day, going 11-for-16 on third down. A bet we would make again...just one of those bad beats that sometimes happen.
What We Thought: Why is everyone so in love with Alabama? Why is the Tide a 3 ½ point favorite against an Arkansas team that has beaten Alabama in two of the last three meetings? What, on the merit of the Crimson’s wins over Western Carolina and Vanderbilt? Another prove-it-to-us situation. The thinking is that Alabama has repaired its rush defense and can slow Arkansas' potent running attack…well, prove it. Historically, any underdog that can rush for 200 yards has a 70 percent chance of covering the number. We’ll take those odds in this one.
What Happened: Alabama 41, Arkansas 38 (W)
We were jubilant when Nick Saban inexplicably elected to kick a field goal to cut a late Razorback lead to four with four minutes and change left, because it meant that even a touchdown wouldn't beat us, thanks to that half-point. But we didn't think the Tide would even get a chance to get the ball back. Darren McFadden is too cramped up to come in? After he has racked up 195 yards on 33 carries? We were correct, though. Bama's rush defense is still not where it needs to be -- the Razorbacks gashed them for 301 yards. A thrilling finish, a heart-breaking loss for Arkansas, a helluva beginning to Saban's second term in the SEC. And the narrowest of victories for us.
We will take 6-3 every week of the year. On to Week 2 of the NFL...
Go forth and prosper!